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Asian stock markets fluctuate as weak US data stirs rate concerns
Asian stock markets fluctuated on Wednesday after a strong start to the week, as investors weighed weak US consumer data that boosted expectations of further interest rate cuts but also raised concerns about the world’s largest economy.
The tepid performance followed a mixed day on Wall Street, where tech firms pared recent gains amid lingering worries over extended valuations and the vast sums invested in artificial intelligence.
Traders were also awaiting key US jobs data later in the day—and inflation figures at the end of the week—which could provide a clearer view of the Federal Reserve’s plans ahead of its March policy meeting.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that US retail sales saw no growth in December, having risen 0.6 per cent in November.
The figures gave the Fed room to consider cutting borrowing costs next month, after holding rates steady in January following three successive reductions.
However, they also indicated unease among American consumers, who are a key driver of growth, and pointed to further weakness in the economy.
Analysts noted that the previous “bad news is good news” adage, which had previously fuelled rate cut hopes and boosted markets, may no longer apply.
“The market is no longer responding uniformly to the idea that weaker data automatically lifts stocks,” said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.
“Beneath the surface, anxiety around AI-related headline risk is clearly elevated.”
Traders now see a greater chance of three rate cuts this year, with two already priced in, according to Bloomberg.
Still, two Federal Reserve officials argued on Tuesday for keeping borrowing costs unchanged due to elevated inflation.
Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack said in a speech in Ohio that “based on my forecast, we could be on hold for quite some time,” adding, “I’d prefer to err on the side of patience as we assess the impact of recent rate reductions and monitor how the economy performs.”
Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan told a forum in Texas that another cut could be appropriate if there were “further material cooling in the labour market,” but she was currently “more worried about inflation remaining stubbornly high”.
While the Dow edged up to another record on Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell, with tech firms among the main losers.
Asia performed slightly better, with Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, and Manila rising, while Shanghai, Singapore, and Wellington declined.
Tokyo was closed for a holiday.
There was little major reaction to data showing Chinese consumer inflation eased last month.
Traders remained cautious over developments in the tech sector, concerned that the hundreds of billions invested in AI may not yield returns for some time.
This was compounded on Tuesday after Google parent Alphabet raised more than $30 billion in debt in less than 24 hours to ramp up its AI capabilities.
News that startup Altruist Corp had launched a tax-strategy tool added to concerns on trading floors, as it could take business from mainstream firms.
Sentiment was further rattled last week after Anthropic unveiled a model capable of replacing numerous software tools, including those for legal work and data marketing.
Key figures at around 0230 GMT:
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.1% at 27,211.34
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.1% at 4,126.41
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1901 from $1.1899 on Tuesday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3648 from $1.3644
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 153.92 yen from 154.31 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 87.22 pence from 87.18 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.7% at $64.38 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.6% at $69.20 per barrel
New York – Dow: UP 0.1% at 50,188.14 (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3% at 10,353.84 (close)