Thailand’s economy expanded by 2.8% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, official data showed on Monday, despite global uncertainty linked to the war in the Middle East.
The growth between January and March was driven by both spending and production, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). Secretary-general Danucha Pichayanan told reporters that expansion in manufacturing, electricity and gas supply, accommodation and food services, and financial activities contributed to the rise, alongside stronger private and public consumption.
The figures come as policymakers continue to warn of a slowdown in the months ahead. Thailand’s finance ministry said last month that growth was expected to weaken this year compared with 2025 levels.
The country’s tourism sector, a key driver of economic activity, is also under pressure, with foreign visitor arrivals still below pre-pandemic levels.
Danucha said the government’s 2026 outlook would depend on the duration of the US-Israel war against Iran. He said that in a best-case scenario, where the conflict ends in the first half of the year, growth could reach 1.4%. If the war continues into next year, growth could fall to around 0.8%.
The government has already moved to cushion the impact of global instability, approving a $12.2 billion emergency borrowing package this month, one of its largest in decades, aimed at supporting the economy during the Middle East crisis.
At the same time, inflation pressures are expected to rise. Core inflation is forecast to reach 3.0% this year, up from an earlier estimate of 0.3%, reflecting higher costs linked to global energy and supply disruptions.
