Distinguished Fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) and Convener of the Citizen’s Platform Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya has questioned the realism of the proposed national budget, arguing that its welfare-oriented narrative is not adequately matched by a fiscal structure capable of protecting the country’s most vulnerable people.
Speaking at a media briefing held at the BRAC Centre in Mohakhali on Monday, Debapriya said the central issue was not the size of public expenditure but whether the budget effectively addresses the needs of disadvantaged citizens.
He observed that despite economic growth of 4.14 per cent in FY26, the benefits were not widely shared. According to him, the growth failed to generate sufficient employment, increase real wages, or ease the cost-of-living pressures faced by ordinary people. Inflation remained high at 9.42 per cent in May 2026, while wage growth stood at 8.13 per cent, resulting in negative real wage growth. Domestic savings also declined significantly, falling from 25.76 per cent of GDP in FY23 to 21.38 per cent in FY26.
Debapriya highlighted weaknesses in key economic sectors, noting that large-scale manufacturing expanded by only 1.76 per cent in FY26, while ready-made garment export earnings declined by 1.9 per cent during the July-April period.
The budget aims to raise revenue collection to 10.2 per cent of GDP and keep the fiscal deficit at around 3.5 per cent. However, Debapriya described the framework as lacking professional realism, pointing out that it assumes a 52.9 per cent increase in revenue despite a substantial shortfall in the current fiscal year.
He also criticised the reliance on indirect taxation. Nearly 59 per cent of additional revenue is expected to come from VAT, customs duties and supplementary duties, while VAT alone accounts for 32.9 per cent of the total revenue target. Such measures, he argued, place a disproportionate burden on consumers regardless of income levels, raising concerns about tax fairness.
The Citizen’s Platform nevertheless acknowledged several positive developments. It noted that nearly 60 per cent of additional spending has been directed towards education, healthcare and social protection. Social security allocations have risen to 2.11 per cent of GDP and 15.39 per cent of total budget expenditure, the highest share recorded so far.
The platform also welcomed the consolidation of social protection programmes, expansion of digital cash transfer systems, and the introduction of Family Card and Farmers Card initiatives. However, it pointed out that civil service pensions account for nearly a quarter of social protection spending, limiting the reach of benefits to broader segments of society.
Debapriya expressed concern that persons with disabilities, third-gender communities, Dalits, indigenous populations, climate-vulnerable households and urban slum residents continue to receive insufficient targeted support. He also criticised the absence of wealth and inheritance taxes and the lack of unemployment protection for displaced workers.
Concluding his remarks, he urged the government to improve transparency, publish reliable real-time data and strengthen fiscal accountability mechanisms, warning that Bangladesh cannot build a genuine welfare state through rhetoric alone without corresponding reforms in public finance.
