Benchmark Brent crude oil prices rose above $100 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since May as escalating military conflict in the Middle East threatened global energy supply routes.
Economists warn that the economic consequences of this latest price surge could be more severe than previous spikes, as they have already depleted strategic reserves.
The increase follows attacks on Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea by Houthi forces in Yemen, raising fears that key maritime export routes could be blocked.
In normal trading conditions, world daily oil consumption stands slightly above 100 million barrels.
However, data from the International Energy Agency shows that global output remains approximately 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.
Saudi Arabia had previously rerouted shipments via pipelines to its western port of Yanbu to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz, maintaining roughly three quarters of its regular export volume.
Economic analyst Maya Senussi at Oxford Economics noted that this alternative route now faces severe operational difficulties due to threats against maritime traffic in the Red Sea.
Analysts at Oxford Economics warned that if both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea routes are blocked, crude oil prices could eventually rise above $160 per barrel.
Rystad Energy vice president Janiv Shah explained that global market buffers are exceptionally thin because spare production capacity and commercial stockpiles have already been drawn down.
Despite these growing pressures, energy analysts point to several factors helping to cushion the market.
Crude production is expanding in nations including the United States, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela, while import demand in China has slowed.
Member nations of the International Energy Agency also hold well over one billion barrels in emergency reserves, alongside an estimated 1.35 billion barrels currently stored on tankers at sea.
TotalEnergies' chief executive officer confirmed during quarterly financial results that refinery supply levels remain secure for the immediate future.
Nevertheless, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde expressed deep concern over the attacks, noting that rising energy costs directly fuel inflation and influence interest rate decisions.
