VIENNA,

Ministers from the OPEC+ alliance are set to maintain their current oil output strategy following an online ministerial meeting on Sunday, capping a year that saw the group successfully pivot to production increases despite market risks.

After years of cutting supply to prop up prices, key members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, surprised the market earlier this year by significantly boosting production. This shift aimed to reclaim market share from growing competitors in the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.

Production Hikes and Unexpected Help

Since April, eight core members—the V8—have increased their collective oil output by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd).

While this move initially created a supply glut and placed downward pressure on crude profits, the strategy was ultimately successful, largely due to a mix of unforeseen global events.

The 12-day Iran-Israel war.

US sanctions on Russia’s oil sector.

China’s build-up of strategic oil reserves.

HSBC analyst Kim Fustier noted that none of these factors could have been predicted at the start of the year, but they offset the supply glut, leading her to conclude that the OPEC+ output strategy “has generally worked.”

The Role of the White House

Experts also point to the return of Donald Trump as US President as a key influence on the alliance’s decision to increase oil output.

Francis Perrin of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) called the “Trump factor absolutely essential.” Shortly after taking office, Trump urged Saudi Arabia to boost production to lower prices. Accommodating US interests, Perrin suggests, provided Riyadh with an “important asset” in its diplomacy with Washington, evidenced by recent agreements on civil nuclear energy and access to advanced AI systems.

The current price of Brent crude, hovering around $60-$65 a barrel, is seen as a beneficial range—low enough to satisfy US political goals while remaining high enough to ensure profitability for US producers.

Looking Ahead to 2026

The V8 already signalled last month that oil output adjustments would pause in the first quarter of 2026, citing weaker seasonal demand.

Experts anticipate no major announcements from Sunday’s meeting, as the group awaits clarity on international conflicts, particularly the ongoing negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine. An easing of those tensions would likely reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently supporting oil prices.