2030 renewable energy targets at risk as global growth momentum halves

In late 2023, the world celebrated a historic consensus at COP28: a collective pledge to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. It was hailed as the “North Star” for the global energy transition. However, as we move through early 2026, that star is visibly fading. An exclusive analysis of the latest Global Energy Monitor (GEM) data reveals a sobering trajectory, showing that the growth rate for planned and under-construction wind and solar projects has been halved, falling from 22 per cent in 2024 to just 11 per cent in 2025. This deceleration has triggered a quiet panic among energy ministers and market analysts alike, raising a fundamental question of whether the green revolution has hit a political and structural ceiling.

The most damning finding in the report is the decisive shift in the centre of gravity for clean power. Despite their immense wealth and historical responsibility for emissions, the G7 nations now account for a mere 11 per cent of the global prospective wind and solar pipeline. While emerging economies are surging ahead, the G7’s collective project list has remained virtually frozen at 520 gigawatts (GW) for nearly three years. In stark contrast, China is operating on a scale that beggars belief, accounting for 1.5 terawatts (TW) of the global pipeline—roughly a third of all growth and more than the next six nations combined.

This crisis is most acute in the wind sector, which has been hit by an epidemic of failed auctions in wealthy nations. In 2025, developers in Europe and North America faced a streak of “zero-bid” scenarios as they cited high interest rates and “uncapped negative bidding” as financial death traps. Governments have found themselves in a collision between ambitious climate targets and broken market designs, often asking developers to pay for the privilege of building turbines at a time when supply chains are increasingly brittle and expensive.

The geopolitical landscape has added further layers of complexity, particularly with the return of President Donald Trump in the United States. His administration’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” mantra and explicit antipathy toward offshore wind have effectively frozen several major coastal developments, leading to an estimated $29 billion in project cancellations in 2025 alone. Yet, experts warn that blaming a single leader oversimplifies the crisis; even in Europe, nations like Germany are grappling with “green fatigue”, debating whether to limit grid priority for renewables as integration costs spiral.

Beyond policy, a “mineral winter” is looming over the hardware of the transition. As reported by The Energy Tribune, prices for rare earth elements like dysprosium and terbium—critical for the high-efficiency magnets in wind turbines—have hit 10-year highs. With China controlling over 90 per cent of the refining capacity for these minerals, any disruption in supply translates directly into higher costs for Western developers. The price of gallium, essential for the semiconductors used in smart grids, has similarly surged to $1,600/kg, pushing many projects from “announced” to “scrapped” as margins evaporate.

Perhaps most alarming is the sheer fragility of the current global pipeline. GEM found that nearly 40 per cent of planned projects are either delayed or abandoned before breaking ground. While solar remains somewhat resilient due to shorter lead times, the wind sector—the intended backbone of the 2030 target—is stalling. To meet the COP28 goal, the world must now add a staggering 1.1 TW of capacity every single year through 2030, a feat that requires annual growth to accelerate back up to 16.6 per cent.

There are flickers of hope as nations like Japan and the UK begin to revise their auction models to include price floors and better subsidies. However, success now depends less on engineering and more on whether wealthy nations can overcome the political inertia and resource bottlenecks that have stalled their once-dominant green sectors. The transition is no longer a question of whether we have enough sun or wind; it is a question of whether we have the political will to build the infrastructure to catch it.