US-Iran tensions threaten Bangladesh’s energy imports

Energy experts and industry officials have warned that Bangladesh may face significant energy and financial strain if tensions between the United States and Iran escalate further and disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - a critical route for the country’s fuel imports.

With nearly 65–70 per cent of Bangladesh’s energy demand met through imports - including liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) - analysts say a prolonged regional conflict could severely impact power generation, fuel supply and the broader economy.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transit corridors. Reports indicate that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has issued radio warnings suggesting vessels could face restrictions in the passage. If the strait is officially blocked, international research agencies predict crude oil prices could surge to between $95 and $110 per barrel.

Bangladesh’s heavy dependence on the Middle East makes it vulnerable to supply disruptions, with about 55 per cent of its LNG imports coming mainly from Qatar and Oman, around 20 per cent of its annual crude oil demand sourced from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and nearly 100 per cent of its LPG supply linked to Middle Eastern markets.

Experts warn that any disruption in these supply channels could trigger cascading effects across key sectors, affecting power generation, fuel availability and overall economic stability.

Energy specialists say a supply interruption could result in severe power shortages, particularly during the upcoming peak summer season, as Qatar remains a primary LNG supplier for gas-fired power plants.

Professor M Tamim, an energy expert at Independent University, cautioned that prolonged conflict could sharply increase oil prices and disrupt LNG shipments, creating a serious gas crisis.

Industry analysts also warn of LPG scarcity, noting that the domestic market requires around 1,20,000 tonnes monthly and is already facing supply constraints. Any break in shipments could push prices higher and strain availability.

Rising global oil prices would also pressure Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves and increase the cost of living.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has stated that refined fuel supplies remain secure until June, as imports come from Malaysia, China and Singapore - routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

However, BPC Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman said authorities are closely monitoring developments.

Petrobangla Director (Operations) Engr Md Rafiqul Islam said the agency is tracking the situation round-the-clock but acknowledged that potential disruptions in Qatari shipments remain a concern.

Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood has called an emergency meeting to assess risks and explore alternative import options.

“We are monitoring the situation and planning to identify alternative sources so Bangladesh does not face an energy vacuum,” the minister told reporters.

Industry leaders have urged the government to strengthen communication with potential suppliers such as Indonesia and Malaysia to reduce dependence on a single region.