The escalating Iran conflict is deepening the global fertiliser crisis, as energy market disruptions and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz threaten both power stability and global food supplies.
At the centre of the crisis is energy. Iran’s move to limit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital route for oil, gas and fertiliser trade has driven up fuel prices and disrupted supply chains. The strait normally carries about a fifth of global oil shipments, making it critical for both energy and agriculture.
Fertiliser production is heavily dependent on energy, especially natural gas. Nitrogen fertilisers such as urea require large volumes of gas, meaning rising liquefied natural gas prices are pushing production costs higher and limiting supply.
Industry analysts estimate that around 30% of global urea trade has been affected by the disruption. Delays in shipments and higher energy costs are already tightening global markets.
Phosphate fertilisers are also under pressure. These rely on sulphur, a byproduct of oil and gas refining. With Gulf energy flows disrupted, the supply of key inputs is becoming more uncertain.
The timing of the disruption is critical. Fertilisers are applied just before planting, and delays can directly reduce crop yields.
Carl Skau of the World Food Programme warned that shortages during planting season could lead to weaker harvests. Higher fertiliser costs are also expected to translate into higher food prices globally.
Farmers are already feeling the pressure. In India, small-scale farmers are concerned about whether government subsidies will be enough to cover rising fertiliser costs. In Europe and the United States, growers are adjusting planting strategies due to tighter margins.
Some farmers are reducing fertiliser use or switching to less input-intensive crops. While this helps manage costs, it can lower productivity and tighten global food supply.
Countries that depend on fertiliser imports from the Gulf are among the hardest hit.
In Africa, supply disruptions are affecting planting schedules. Farmers have limited time to prepare land and apply fertiliser, and even short delays can reduce yields significantly.
Ethiopia, for example, relies heavily on fertiliser shipments routed through Djibouti, a supply chain now under strain. Across East Africa, farmers are racing against weather windows as supplies remain uncertain.
Alternative sources are not filling the gap. China, a major fertiliser producer, is prioritising domestic demand, while Russia is already producing near full capacity.
This leaves global markets vulnerable to prolonged shortages if tensions in the Gulf continue.
Energy analysts also warn that even if the conflict eases, shipping risks and higher insurance costs could keep fertiliser prices elevated.
Governments are stepping in to manage the crisis. India has expanded fertiliser subsidies to protect farmers, but this is increasing fiscal pressure and limiting funds for long-term agricultural investment.
At the same time, reliance on imported gas for fertiliser production is increasing energy vulnerability.
Experts are calling for policy shifts, including boosting domestic fertiliser production, investing in renewable energy for agriculture and promoting sustainable alternatives such as organic fertilisers.
The situation highlights a clear link between energy security and food security. Disruptions in oil and gas markets are directly affecting fertiliser supply, which in turn impacts global food production.
“The food system depends on stable fertiliser supply chains,” said a senior executive at a leading fertiliser company, warning that continued instability could have lasting consequences.
For developing countries, the risks are particularly severe. Rising energy costs, limited fertiliser access and climate pressures are combining to threaten agricultural output.
The Iran conflict is no longer just a geopolitical issue. it is rapidly becoming a global energy and food security crisis, with consequences likely to be felt in markets and households worldwide.
