UAE exits OPEC, OPEC+ shaking global oil market

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its withdrawal from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ alliance, marking a significant shift in global oil politics and dealing a major blow to the group’s cohesion.

The decision comes at a time of heightened instability in global energy markets, already disrupted by ongoing tensions in the Middle East and pressure on key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the move followed a comprehensive review of the country’s current and future energy strategy. He clarified that the decision was taken independently and not discussed in advance with other member states, including Saudi Arabia.

“This is a policy decision taken after careful consideration of production levels and long-term energy priorities,” he said.

The exit is expected to weaken OPEC’s internal unity, particularly as the UAE has long been regarded as one of the group’s key producers alongside Saudi Arabia.

Analysts say the departure could affect the cartel’s ability to coordinate output and manage global supply stability.

Energy markets are already under strain due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil and gas shipments normally passes. However, the UAE argued that current supply constraints would limit the immediate market impact of its withdrawal.

The move has also been interpreted as politically significant, coming amid broader regional tensions and criticism from UAE officials regarding Gulf security cooperation during recent conflicts involving Iran.

Analysts suggest the decision may allow the UAE greater flexibility to expand production outside OPEC quotas, potentially increasing output in the long term and altering the balance of influence within global oil markets.

Experts also warn that the departure could gradually weaken Saudi Arabia’s traditional role as the central stabilising force in OPEC, potentially leading to greater volatility in global oil prices over time.

While immediate market reactions remain muted due to ongoing geopolitical disruptions, observers expect longer-term implications for supply coordination, pricing stability, and the future structure of global oil governance.