Seven members of the OPEC+ are set to meet on Sunday for a closely watched decision on oil production, marking the group’s first policy move since the United Arab Emirates formally exited the alliance.
The meeting comes at a time of heightened global energy uncertainty, driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict and supply disruptions linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman and Algeria are expected to take part in the virtual discussions.
While markets largely anticipate a modest production increase of around 1,88,000 barrels per day, analysts suggest the decision may have limited real impact. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have already constrained output, with several Gulf producers unable to export oil efficiently due to restricted shipping routes.
Data indicates that actual production has been significantly below quota levels, with a gap of nearly nine million barrels per day in March, largely attributed to war-related disruptions rather than deliberate supply cuts.
The departure of the UAE - one of the group’s largest producers - has added further uncertainty. The country had long expressed dissatisfaction with production limits, especially as it invested heavily in expanding its capacity. Its exit removes a major player with significant untapped output potential from the quota system.
Despite expectations of a routine quota adjustment, the tone of the meeting’s final statement is likely to be closely analysed for signals about the group’s future direction and cohesion.
Analysts also warn that the UAE’s move could encourage other members, particularly those struggling to adhere to quotas, to reconsider their positions, potentially reshaping the balance within OPEC+ at a time when global oil markets remain highly volatile.
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