Traders and shipping analysts say the disruption to Gulf oil exports following the Iran conflict and the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been significantly less severe than early market fears suggested.
At the start of the crisis, analysts estimated that the suspension of non-Iranian Gulf crude exports - ranging between 12 million and 15 million barrels per day - could trigger an unprecedented global energy shock. This expectation drove Brent crude futures to nearly $120 per barrel in March, with some forecasts even warning of a possible rise to $200, raising global inflation concerns.
However, despite early disruptions and tankers initially anchoring due to heightened security risks and uncertainty over navigation through the strait, significant volumes of crude have continued to move. Ship-tracking data and industry estimates indicate that hundreds of millions of barrels have still been transported through the Gulf and surrounding routes.
According to shipping analytics firm Kpler, around 136 million barrels of non-Iranian crude flowed through Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman between early April and 10 June, averaging about 1.9 million barrels per day. US President Donald Trump also claimed that over 100 million barrels had passed through the region as part of what he described as a coordinated effort to keep tankers moving.
Industry sources say producers adapted quickly, using alternative logistics routes and shipping arrangements, including exports from Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia via different terminals such as the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
While the International Energy Agency initially estimated a supply loss of around 14 million barrels per day, traders now believe the real shortfall is closer to 5-6 million barrels per day, and potentially as low as 2 million when adjusting for shifting demand and global supply buffers.
Despite this resilience, analysts warn that global oil inventories are declining rapidly, increasing the risk of future price spikes if supply constraints tighten further.
