China has informed several governments within the Pacific that it is preparing to carry out a long-range missile test over the South Pacific within the next 24 hours, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the matter.
The planned launch is expected to involve an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fitted with a dummy warhead.
Officials said, "Notifications have been shared with a number of countries in the region, including Australia and New Zealand, to ensure aviation and maritime safety.”
The briefing was reportedly delivered on Monday, only hours after Australia and Fiji announced a new defence partnership.
However, people familiar with the preparations said the missile test appears to have been planned well in advance and is unlikely to be a direct response to the latest regional security agreement.
According to diplomatic sources, China has also issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM), warning aircraft and vessels to avoid the designated area during the planned military activity.
The exact location of the impact zone has not been publicly disclosed.
Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s office has not commented on the reported notification.
The expected launch would follow a similar exercise conducted in September 2024, when China fired an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a non-operational warhead from Hainan Island.
The missile travelled approximately 11,500 kilometres before landing in waters within the exclusive economic zone of French Polynesia.
At the time, China’s Ministry of National Defence described the exercise as a routine military training activity conducted in accordance with international law, adding that it was not directed at any specific country or target.
Long-range missile tests of this nature require extensive planning, making it unlikely that the reported launch was organised in response to recent political developments in the Pacific.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that China’s intelligence-gathering vessel Liao Wang 1 has been operating north of Papua New Guinea in recent days, although no official connection has been made between the ship’s movements and the planned missile test.
China has continued to expand its military presence across the Indo-Pacific in recent years.
In February 2025, Chinese naval forces carried out live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea, prompting several commercial airlines to alter their flight paths as a precaution.
The anticipated missile launch is expected to attract close attention from governments across the region as they continue to monitor developments affecting security and stability in the Pacific.
