The International Crisis Group has stated that the prospects of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina mounting a political comeback in Bangladesh are now extremely slim. Senior Consultant Thomas Kean emphasised that the recent verdict against her has significant political repercussions, and as long as she continues to hold control of the Awami League, the party is unlikely to be allowed back into the mainstream political arena.
On Monday, November 17, the International Crimes Tribunal-1 (ICT-1) convicted Sheikh Hasina of crimes against humanity for her role in the July-August 2024 uprising, which resulted in over 1,000 deaths. She was sentenced to death in one case and received life imprisonment on a separate charge.
The verdict has heightened tensions in Bangladesh as the nation approaches its highly anticipated national elections scheduled for February 2026. Recent violence, including bombings and a call for a nationwide ‘lockdown’ by the Awami League, has kept the country on edge, Kean noted.
He urged the Awami League to refrain from acts of violence and warned the interim government against heavy-handed crackdowns on their supporters. Kean also highlighted that the conviction of Sheikh Hasina, widely believed to be responsible for the atrocities, will be broadly welcomed by the Bangladeshi public.
A UN investigation had previously established that the deadly crackdown, which killed around 1,400 protesters, was carried out with the full knowledge and coordination of Bangladesh’s political leadership, including Sheikh Hasina and former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan. The recent tribunal trial further corroborated these findings with recordings of Sheikh Hasina discussing the crackdown and testimony from former police officials.
While the process has faced criticism—particularly over holding trials in absentia, the speed of the proceedings, and resource constraints within Bangladesh’s justice system—Kean emphasised that these issues should not diminish accountability. He stressed that the ongoing challenges within the country’s judicial system do not absolve Sheikh Hasina or the leadership of the Awami League from responsibility for the actions taken during the July-Uprising.
Overall, the International Crisis Group suggests that Sheikh Hasina’s political comeback is virtually impossible, signalling a major shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape amid ongoing unrest and upcoming elections.
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