Influential UK weekly The Economist has identified BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman as the leading contender to become Bangladesh’s next prime minister ahead of the national election scheduled to be held on 12 February.
In an analysis published on 2 February, the magazine described Tarique Rahman as “the front-runner” in what it termed Bangladesh’s first meaningful national election since the political upheaval 18 months ago that ended the Awami League’s long rule.
The weekly noted that the upcoming election is being held in a vastly changed political landscape following the mass uprising led largely by younger voters, which it said dismantled an authoritarian system and reopened the path to democratic competition.
According to the analysis, a credible election outcome could help restore law and order, rebuild investor confidence and ease strained regional relations, particularly with India.
The Economist’s assessment follows similar forecasts by international outlets such as Time magazine and Bloomberg, which have also pointed to Tarique Rahman’s growing electoral momentum.
Describing scenes from Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh on 25 December, the magazine wrote that supporters flooded roads to catch a glimpse of his bulletproof vehicle, which slowed frequently amid cheering crowds.
It observed that for many voters, this election marks their first real chance to participate in a competitive ballot, noting that a significant portion of the electorate had never experienced a genuinely contested poll since 2008.
The report said the interim government, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus, would conclude its mandate by overseeing the election.
While acknowledging economic difficulties inherited by the caretaker administration, the analysis said many observers credit it with stabilising an economy that was previously “in free fall” and initiating reform discussions aimed at preventing future authoritarianism.
These reforms include proposals such as creating an upper house of parliament and imposing term limits on prime ministers.
Turning to other political forces, The Economist said Jamaat-e-Islami’s recent electoral gains have unsettled sections of the urban middle class.
It pointed out that the party has not nominated any female candidates and has struggled to clarify its stance on women’s employment, raising doubts about its readiness to govern.
The magazine also questioned Jamaat’s governing experience and the feasibility of some of its policy proposals.
Against this backdrop, the analysis said, Tarique Rahman’s BNP appears to be benefiting from a broad electoral opening and is currently leading opinion polls. It recalled the party’s political legacy under former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and her late husband, Shaheed President Ziaur Rahman, noting BNP’s previous stints in power during the 1990s and early 2000s.
The Economist reported that Tarique Rahman has pledged to prioritise job creation, encourage investment and expand skills training to help young Bangladeshis access better-paying employment, including overseas. It cited his ambitious proposals on water management through large-scale canal excavation and environmental initiatives such as mass tree plantation.
On governance, the weekly said Tarique Rahman has promised to safeguard freedom of expression, restore public order and tackle corruption, while holding those responsible for violence during the 2024 unrest accountable - without resorting to political vendettas.
Quoting Tarique Rahman, the analysis concluded that the recent revolution served as a warning to governments that ignore public aspirations, adding that observers believe the BNP leader’s long exile has reshaped his political outlook, making him appear more cautious and conciliatory than before.
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