US President Donald Trump on Thursday called for a brand new nuclear treaty after the last agreement with Russia expired, fuelling fears of a new global arms race.
The Trump administration has repeatedly pushed for any new treaty to include China, whose nuclear arsenal is expanding but remains significantly smaller than those of Russia and the United States. Beijing, however, has publicly rejected the pressure.
Trump had largely remained silent on Russian calls to extend New START, the 2010 treaty that imposed the final limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals after decades of Cold War-era agreements.
But hours after the treaty expired, Trump said the agreement—signed by his predecessor Barack Obama and later extended by Joe Biden—was “badly negotiated” and “is being grossly violated”.
“We should have our nuclear experts work on a new, improved, and modernised treaty that can last long into the future,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
Asked whether Washington and Moscow had agreed to continue observing the terms of the expired START treaty while negotiations on a new deal take place, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, “Not to my knowledge.”
Russia had previously refused inspections under New START as relations deteriorated with the Biden administration. On Thursday, Moscow said it no longer considered itself bound by limits on nuclear warheads following the treaty’s expiration.
Despite the impasse over New START, Trump has moved to revive diplomacy with Russia and invited President Vladimir Putin to Alaska last August.
The United States also announced on Thursday that it was resuming military dialogue with Russia following three-way talks in Abu Dhabi on the war in Ukraine.
‘Unconstrained nuclear competition’
Campaigners have warned that the collapse of the New START treaty could trigger a global arms race and have urged nuclear powers to return to negotiations.
In a joint statement issued on Thursday, a group of former senior arms control officials from around the world called on the United States and Russia to continue observing New START’s limits as an initial confidence-building measure.
The end of the treaty “will reduce nuclear stability and predictability, threaten global security, and increase the risk of a new era of unconstrained nuclear competition,” they said.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the state of nuclear arms control between Washington and Moscow as being at a “grave moment”.
“This dissolution of decades of achievement could not come at a worse time — the risk of a nuclear weapon being used is the highest in decades,” Guterres said, referring to early Russian suggestions during the Ukraine war of using tactical nuclear weapons.
A NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity, called for “restraint and responsibility” and said the US-led alliance “will continue to take the steps necessary” to ensure its defence. The official also condemned what they described as “Russia’s irresponsible nuclear rhetoric”.
China rejects pressure
On Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said arms control was “impossible” without China’s involvement.
China’s foreign ministry said on Friday that it regretted the expiration of New START but stressed that Beijing “will not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage ”.
“China’s nuclear capabilities are on a totally different scale from those of the United States and Russia,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian told a press briefing.
Russia and the United States together control more than 80 per cent of the world’s nuclear warheads.
China’s nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country’s, increasing by around 100 warheads a year since 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
China is estimated to possess at least 600 nuclear warheads—far fewer than the 1,500 each held by Russia and the United States under New START limits. France and Britain, both US allies bound by treaty obligations, together possess about 100 more.
Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said China should eventually engage in talks but added there was “no indication that Trump or his team have taken the time to propose risk-reduction or arms control discussions with China” since returning to office in 2025.
