Thais will vote on Sunday in an election pitching the popular reformists who won the last poll against the conservative figure who ultimately emerged as prime minister, with former leader Thaksin Shinawatra casting a long shadow from his prison cell.
Whoever forms Thailand’s next government will have to confront a long-running border dispute with Cambodia, which erupted into deadly clashes twice last year, as well as multibillion-dollar cross-border cyber-scam networks operating in the region.
Economic growth remains sluggish. Tourism, a key pillar of the economy, has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels, while fast-growing Vietnam is now drawing in more foreign direct investment.
No party is expected to secure an outright majority, and analysts say the vote could mirror the inconclusive election held less than three years ago.
At that poll, an earlier incarnation of the progressive People’s Party won the largest share of the vote and the most parliamentary seats, but its prime ministerial candidate was blocked from taking office and the party was later dissolved.
Instead, Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party, which finished second, formed a coalition with the third-placed conservative Bhumjaithai party. Its prime minister was later removed by court order.
He was replaced by Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was herself ousted by the judiciary before parliament appointed her former coalition partner, Anutin Charnvirakul, in September — making him Thailand’s third prime minister in two years.
“Thai elections have effectively become decoupled from government formation,” said political scientist Napon Jatusripitak.
“That is not necessarily a good thing for a country where democratic experience has been turbulent.”
Thailand’s modern political history has been marked by military coups, violent street protests and judicial bans on prime ministers and political parties.
The most recent coup, in 2014, ushered in five years of military rule and a junta-drafted constitution that grants significant power to institutions appointed by a senate that is not directly elected.
This has created “a situation where people who are elected can be undermined by people who are not elected”. Napon said.
People’s Party supporter Patcharee Phadungsuksira, 26, told AFP she wanted a system that was “more fair and truly represents the voice of the people”.
‘Old-style’ politics
The People’s Party is the clear leader in opinion polls, with surveys suggesting support from around one-third of voters.
Second is Anutin’s Bhumjaithai party. A conservative who backed the legalisation of cannabis, analysts say he could retain power by again forming an alliance with Pheu Thai, which now ranks third in the polls.
Once Thailand’s most successful political party, Pheu Thai has lost support following Paetongtarn’s removal by the constitutional court over her handling of the Cambodia dispute, and with Thaksin now serving a one-year prison sentence for corruption.
His nephew, Yodchanan Wongsawat, is seeking to become the family’s fifth prime minister, but pollster NIDA predicts the party will secure just 16 per cent of the vote — far below its previous highs.
While centre-right Bhumjaithai is emphasising its national defence credentials, particularly after last year’s clashes with Cambodia, the People’s Party is campaigning to end conscription and reduce the number of generals.
All three major parties are offering populist pledges and socio-economic policies, including a promise by Pheu Thai to award nine daily prizes of one million baht (£24,000) each to stimulate the economy.
Voters will also take part in a referendum on Sunday to indicate whether they support constitutional reform in principle, though no specific proposals are included.
“We cannot really expect a lot of change from this election,” said political scientist Punchada Sirivunnabood, noting that Thailand’s “old-style” politics remain entrenched.
Unless the People’s Party wins an overall majority—something achieved only by Thaksin’s party in earlier democratic elections—she said it would be “really impossible” for it to form a government.
