Japan goes to the polls on Sunday in snap elections, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hoping to convert a strong start into a decisive victory that could affect relations with China and unsettle financial markets.
Opinion polls suggest Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed almost continuously for decades, is likely to secure more than the 233 seats needed for a majority in the 465-member lower house. Polls indicate that the LDP and its coalition partner could even reach 310 seats, enough for a two-thirds majority—the party’s best result since 2017, when Takaichi’s mentor, the late Shinzo Abe, achieved a similar outcome.
“The future is something you have to build with your own hands,” Japan’s first woman premier said in a viral campaign video on YouTube. “The LDP will lead the way.”
Takaichi, a former heavy metal drummer and admirer of Britain’s “Iron Lady” Margaret Thatcher, emerged from the ultra-conservative fringe of the LDP when she became party leader in October. She has proved popular with voters, particularly the young, who have embraced everything from her handbags to her public musical performances, including a K-pop duet with South Korea’s president.
“I came just to have a look at her. I think she is amazing,” said Yuka Ando, 17, a high-school student who attended a campaign event in Tokyo.
Takaichi has taken a tough line on immigration, helping to curb the rise of the populist Sanseito party. She said on Saturday that screenings had become stricter to prevent “terrorists and also industrial spies” from entering Japan and that foreigners’ tax and health insurance compliance would be checked.
Economy and China tensions
Takaichi has faced concerns over her handling of Japan’s public finances. She followed a $135-billion stimulus package with a campaign promise to suspend the consumption tax on food, even as Japan’s debt remains more than twice the size of its economy and bond yields hit record highs.
Barely two weeks into office, Takaichi, long seen as a China hawk, suggested Japan could intervene militarily if Beijing attempted to take self-ruled Taiwan by force. China reacted angrily, summoning Tokyo’s ambassador, warning its citizens against travelling to Japan, conducting joint air drills with Russia, and taking back Japan’s last two pandas.
US President Donald Trump endorsed Takaichi as a “strong, powerful, and wise leader, and one that truly loves her country,” though he has not publicly commented on the spat with Beijing.
Political analyst Margarita Estevez-Abe of Syracuse University said the episode boosted Takaichi’s popularity. “Now she doesn’t have to worry about any elections until 2028, when the next upper house elections will take place,” she said. “The best scenario for Japan is that Takaichi takes a deep breath and focuses on amending relations with China.”
