Thailand’s caretaker prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, is preparing for coalition negotiations on Monday after his conservative Bhumjaithai Party achieved a stunning election victory, riding a wave of nationalism.
The pro-military, pro-monarchy party recorded its best electoral performance ever in polls held following deadly border clashes with Cambodia last year.
Anutin, heir to a construction dynasty, now faces the dual challenge of addressing weak economic growth and managing the fallout from multibillion-dollar cybercrime networks operating in the region.
“Thailand will move as it has over the past three months. We will see nationalism, a firm stance on Cambodia, and economic policies. Nothing changes,” said Virot Ali, a politics lecturer at Thammasat University.
Local media projected Bhumjaithai to have won nearly 200 seats in Sunday’s vote, well ahead of rivals but short of an outright majority in the 500-member lower house.
The reformist People’s Party trailed with around 120 seats, while Pheu Thai — the party of jailed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra — came third.
Voters appeared to reject the two established parties, whose vote shares fell sharply compared to the 2023 polls, according to preliminary results from the Election Commission.
Pheu Thai recorded its worst showing since Thaksin founded his political dynasty, after his daughter Paetongtarn lost the premiership over her handling of the Cambodia border dispute. Thaksin is serving a one-year prison sentence for corruption, but many observers expect him to be released early as part of a political settlement.
Phone call scandal
Paul Chambers, associate senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told AFP that Bhumjaithai achieved victory by “emphasising its commitment to nationalism and the king.”
The conservatives also benefited from the “continuing unpopularity of Pheu Thai” following a leaked phone call in which Paetongtarn referred to Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen as “uncle” and described a Thai military commander as her “opponent.” The leak sparked public and political backlash, and she was later removed from office by the Constitutional Court on an ethics complaint.
Still, Pheu Thai is seen as a likely coalition partner for Anutin, as the parties were previously allied until Bhumjaithai withdrew over the border dispute scandal.
Anutin, who took office in September, declined to comment on potential coalition talks on Sunday, noting that the election results were not yet official.
“We will wait until it is clearer, and every party has to meet their executive board to discuss their position,” he said.
Political analyst Napon Jatusripitak expects Bhumjaithai to “move quickly” to form a government in which its interests prevail.
The conflict with Cambodia, which killed scores on both sides and displaced around one million people, remained a major concern for voters. Soon after becoming prime minister following Paetongtarn’s removal, Anutin authorised the armed forces to take whatever action they deemed necessary along the border.
Thailand’s military seized control of several disputed areas during December’s fighting, and a fragile ceasefire remains in place.
The country’s political history is marked by military coups, street protests, and judicial interventions. Its constitution, drafted under military rule after the 2014 coup, grants significant powers to institutions appointed by the Senate, which is not directly elected.
Around 60 per cent of voters reportedly supported constitutional reform in a referendum held on Sunday, although no specific measures were put forward. With Bhumjaithai now in a position to guide the reform process, its conservative instincts make radical change unlikely.
