Iran and the United States have yet to set a date for a new round of talks following an initial encounter last week over the disputed Iranian nuclear programme. For now, however, US President Donald Trump does not appear to be rushing towards military action against the Islamic republic.
AFP examines a critical moment in Iran’s recent history, coming in the aftermath of a crackdown on the country’s largest protests in years. Rights groups say the unrest in January left thousands dead.
Where is diplomacy?
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks on 6 February in Oman with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s influential son-in-law Jared Kushner.
The discussions were indirect, with Oman acting as mediator, although Tehran later confirmed that the two sides exchanged a handshake.
This week, Iran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, followed up with visits to Oman and then Qatar, a close US ally.
Speculation surrounded a document Larijani was seen holding it during his Oman visit, but no fresh talks have yet been scheduled.
“We didn’t have a letter for the Americans, but our Omani friends had some communications,” Larijani told Iranian state television. “There were some remarks conveyed to us on behalf of the Americans,” he added, without elaborating.
Trump had praised the Oman talks as “very good” and said another meeting would take place early this week, though that has not happened.
Is there room for compromise?
In an interview with the Financial Times, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested compromise could be possible over uranium enrichment, the central sticking point.
Western powers believe Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon — a claim Tehran denies — and want enrichment halted, as it is a key step towards weaponisation.
“It is positive that the Americans appear willing to tolerate Iranian enrichment within clearly defined limits,” Fidan said, noting he has spoken with both Iranian and US officials.
After meeting Trump on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the US president believed conditions could be created for “a good deal”.
However, Netanyahu expressed scepticism, insisting any agreement must also address Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its backing of regional proxy groups.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has long favoured confrontation with Washington, has yet to publicly endorse the talks.
Is Trump still threatening Iran?
Trump has never ruled out military action following Iran’s crackdown on protests, although he is currently prioritising diplomacy over the nuclear issue.
According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, more than 7,000 people were killed, most of them protesters.
A US naval group led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln remains deployed in the region as a warning to Tehran.
After talks with Netanyahu in Washington, Trump said he had insisted that “negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a deal can be consummated”.
On Thursday, he added, “We have to make a deal—otherwise it’s going to be very traumatic.”
The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington was considering deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group, although plans could still change. The USS George H.W. Bush could be mobilised within two weeks, the paper said.
Israel in June fought a 12-day conflict with Iran, backed by the United States, which was widely seen as weakening — but not eliminating — Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.
What happens next?
Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the talks amounted more to a US ultimatum than genuine negotiations.
By engaging, Iran was seeking to “buy time” to rebuild its missile capabilities, he said, arguing that Tehran’s real audience was not Washington.
“Israel is pushing Trump towards more aggression, while Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar and the UAE are trying to steer him towards genuine diplomacy,” Harrison said.
“Iran is signalling good faith by attending talks, but the true target is Gulf Arab states that may be able to help prevent a military confrontation.”
