Five years after becoming Africa’s first Covid-era debt defaulter, Zambia is experiencing a remarkable economic turnaround as global powers compete for access to its vast copper reserves.
Demand for the metal has surged exponentially, driven by growth in artificial intelligence, green energy, and defence sectors. Copper, essential for power grids, data centres, and electric vehicles, has become a focal point in a global scramble involving China, the United States, Canada, Europe, India, and Gulf states.
President Hakainde Hichilema told delegates at the African Mining Indaba on Monday that over $12 billion had flowed into the mining sector since 2022. “We have the investors back,” he said.
Zambia is Africa’s second-largest copper producer after the conflict-affected Democratic Republic of Congo and ranks eighth globally, according to the US Geological Survey. Copper accounts for around 15 per cent of Zambia’s GDP and more than 70 per cent of its export earnings. Output rose by eight per cent last year to over 890,000 metric tonnes, and the government aims to triple production within a decade.
Mining is a key driver of growth, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting GDP expansion of 5.2 per cent in 2025 and 5.8 per cent this year, placing Zambia among Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Hichilema highlighted a nationwide geological survey to map untapped deposits, saying, “The seeds are sprouting, and the harvest is coming.”
However, rapid expansion of the heavily polluting industry has raised concerns about environmental damage and “pit-to-port” extraction, where raw copper is exported with little domestic processing.
Daniel Litvin, founder of the Resource Resolutions group, warned of repeating history: “There is a risk that elites will be enriched at the expense of the broader population, while narratives of partnership offered by major powers can mask underlying self-interest.”
Chinese firms have long dominated Zambia’s mining sector, controlling key mines and smelters, while Canada’s First Quantum Minerals remains the country’s largest corporate taxpayer. Investors from India and the Gulf are expanding their footprint, and the United States is re-entering the market after largely withdrawing decades ago. Washington recently launched a $12 billion public-private “Project Vault” to secure critical minerals and reduce reliance on China, alongside a $1.4 million grant to Metalex Africa for operations expansion.
US energy secretary adviser Mike Kopp described the developments as “the beginning of what is going to unfold to be a dramatic new chapter in the way the free world sources and trades in critical minerals.”
Yet the rush comes at a cost. Copper price spikes driven by US tariffs and global demand have prompted warnings that supply chains may prioritise markets over local communities. More than 70 per cent of Zambia’s 21 million people live in poverty, and environmental hazards persist.
In February 2025, a burst tailings dam at a Chinese-owned mine near Kitwe released millions of litres of acidic waste into a tributary of the Kafue River, a key drinking water source. Farmers have filed an $80 billion lawsuit.
Deprose Muchena, programme director at the Open Society Foundation, said, “Whether this boom is different depends on whether governance, rights, and community agency are at the centre, not just supply chain security.”
