The United States and Iran are preparing to resume indirect negotiations in Geneva on Thursday, amid heightened tensions and renewed warnings from Washington over Tehran’s missile capabilities.
The latest round of talks in Switzerland follows weeks of escalating rhetoric and a significant US military build-up in the region. President Donald Trump, in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, accused Iran of advancing what he described as “sinister nuclear ambitions” and claimed Tehran had developed missiles capable of threatening Europe and American bases overseas. He further alleged that Iran was working on missile systems that could eventually reach the United States.
Iran’s foreign ministry rejected those assertions, calling them unfounded. Iranian officials maintain that the country’s missile programme is defensive in nature. Based on publicly disclosed figures from Tehran, Iran’s missile range extends up to 2,000 kilometres. Independent estimates from the US Congressional Research Service suggest the range could be closer to 3,000 kilometres—still significantly short of the distance required to strike the continental United States.
At the core of the dispute remains Iran’s nuclear programme. Western governments have long expressed concern that Tehran is seeking the capability to build a nuclear weapon, an allegation Iranian authorities consistently deny, insisting their activities are intended for civilian energy purposes.
However, Washington has broadened the scope of discussions to include Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its backing of armed groups hostile to Israel. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on the eve of the talks that Iran’s refusal to negotiate over ballistic weapons represented a serious obstacle. He added that President Trump remains committed to pursuing a diplomatic resolution.
Tehran has indicated that its missile programme and regional alliances are not open for negotiation, and has called for the lifting of US sanctions that have severely affected Iran’s economy as part of any potential agreement.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed cautious optimism ahead of the Geneva meeting, saying he hoped the discussions could help move beyond what he described as a prolonged state of “neither war nor peace”. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who will lead the Iranian delegation, characterised the talks as a potential turning point and said an agreement was achievable.
The US delegation is expected to include special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who previously played a role in Middle East diplomacy during Trump’s earlier term in office.
Earlier rounds of talks were held in Oman, which continues to act as a mediator, followed by meetings in Geneva last week. A prior diplomatic effort collapsed after Israel launched strikes on Iranian targets last June, triggering a 12-day conflict that briefly drew in US forces targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.
Tensions have remained elevated since then. In January, unrest inside Iran and a subsequent crackdown by authorities further strained relations with Washington. President Trump has on several occasions suggested that the United States could intervene to support the Iranian people, comments that Tehran has strongly criticised.
Regional analysts warn that the margin for miscalculation is narrowing. Emile Hokayem, a senior fellow specialising in Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said there is growing concern across the region that another confrontation could exceed the scale of last year’s hostilities.
Public opinion inside Iran appears divided. Some residents in Tehran say they fear the economic and humanitarian consequences of a new conflict, while others suggest that prolonged uncertainty has taken a heavy toll.
As negotiators gather in Geneva, the outcome of the talks may determine whether diplomatic engagement can ease tensions or whether the region edges closer to another military confrontation.
