France is set on Monday to outline how it could deploy the European Union’s only nuclear arsenal to safeguard the continent in an increasingly volatile global environment, marked by a more aggressive Russia and a United States perceived to be retreating from Europe.
The address by French President Emmanuel Macron, to be delivered at the Île Longue nuclear submarine base, comes in the wake of US and Israeli strikes against Iran in a campaign that risks further destabilising the Middle East.
“What we are experiencing shows that in the world ahead, power and independence will be two essential pillars in responding to the growing range of threats,” a member of Macron’s team said.
Macron is expected to update France’s nuclear doctrine as Russia’s war against Ukraine enters its fifth year and NATO allies voice concern over Washington’s fluctuating commitment to European security.
“There will undoubtedly be significant adjustments and developments,” a source said of the speech scheduled for 1415 GMT on Monday.
European nations, long reliant on the US nuclear umbrella during the Cold War and in the decades that followed, are increasingly debating whether to strengthen their own atomic capabilities.
Paris has held discussions with countries including Germany and Poland on how France’s nuclear forces might contribute more directly to the continent’s defence.
Last year, Macron indicated he was open to talks about the possible deployment of French aircraft carrying nuclear weapons in other European states.
In February, he said he was considering a revised doctrine that could encompass “special co-operation, joint exercises and shared security interests with certain key countries ”.
France possesses the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, estimated at around 290 warheads. The United Kingdom, no longer a member of the EU, is the only other European nuclear-armed state.
By comparison, the United States and Russia — the two principal nuclear powers — each maintain arsenals numbering in the thousands of warheads.
27 buttons
Assurances from US officials that Washington’s deterrent would continue to extend over Europe through NATO have done little to dispel concerns about unpredictability under US President Donald Trump.
“It is clear that we will need to consider collectively how French and British deterrence can be integrated into a more assertive European defence framework,” Bernard Rogel, who previously served as Macron’s chief military adviser, told AFP.
However, the practicalities of nuclear co-operation among the EU’s 27 member states remain complex.
Rogel stressed that authority over any launch decision would remain exclusively in French hands.
“I cannot envisage having 27 buttons. In terms of credibility, that simply would not function,” he said.
Only a good thing
Rafael Loss, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said European leaders should draw confidence from growing public backing for a stronger nuclear deterrent.
He noted that in Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland, public opinion has shifted towards supporting — rather than opposing — the development of a European alternative to US nuclear protection.
“If there are to be greater European investments in French or British nuclear deterrence, that can only be beneficial,” Finland’s defence minister, Antti Hakkanen, told AFP in February.
Florian Galleri, a historian specialising in nuclear doctrine, cautioned that Macron would need to proceed carefully, given his low approval ratings with one year remaining in his presidency.
The speech could also trigger political backlash ahead of the 2027 presidential election, in which Marine Le Pen’s eurosceptic far-right movement is widely regarded as having its strongest opportunity yet to secure the presidency.
“There is broad consensus in France on retaining nuclear weapons, but not on the direction of nuclear policy,” Galleri said.
The far right has already issued a warning.
“If Mr Macron believes he can hand France’s nuclear weapons over to the EU, he will face impeachment proceedings for treason,” Philippe Olivier, an adviser to Le Pen, wrote on X.
