Turkey’s opposition adrift a year after Imamoglu arrest

Turkish opposition figure Ekrem İmamoğlu will go on trial on Monday on corruption charges, a development analysts say makes it increasingly unlikely that he will contest the next election. However, his party maintains it remains a viable political force despite mounting legal pressure.

The jailed mayor of Istanbul, widely seen as a powerful rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is due to appear in court at the start of a sweeping corruption case in which prosecutors are seeking a total sentence of 2,430 years in prison.

Prosecutors allege the 54-year-old orchestrated a vast criminal network which he controlled “like an octopus”.

Analysts say İmamoğlu, who was jailed a year ago on the same day he was named the presidential candidate of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), is almost certain to be unable to run in the next presidential election.

Even if he were cleared of the corruption allegations, the mayor faces another major legal hurdle: a case challenging the validity of his university degree — a constitutional requirement for presidential candidates.

Zero chance

While the CHP has not publicly discussed alternative candidates, political observers believe party leader Özgür Özel could emerge as the likely nominee if İmamoğlu is barred.

“İmamoğlu’s chances of returning to politics before a presidential election are zero,” said Halil Karaveli, senior fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.

“Even in the very unlikely event that he is acquitted in this trial, there remains the problem that his university diploma could be revoked, which would disqualify him from the presidential race,” he added.

The CHP secured a sweeping victory in the March 2024 local elections against Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), strengthening its control of major cities including Istanbul and Ankara.

Since then, however, the party has faced an extensive legal crackdown, with 15 of its mayors currently behind bars.

Senior CHP figure Burhanettin Bulut accused the government of “using the judiciary as a weapon to shape politics in the corridors of the courts” following its defeat in the 2024 elections.

“Many of our municipalities have been subjected to unlawful political operations, and our elected mayors and colleagues have been imprisoned, disregarding the will of the people,” he told AFP.

For the CHP, the trial scheduled for 9 March involving İmamoğlu and 407 other defendants represents not merely a court appearance but a “critical milestone for the rule of law and the future of democracy in Turkey”, he said.

“For us, this is not simply about defending a mayor, but about upholding the voters’ will and protecting the rule of law.

“We will present a robust legal defence while demonstrating a steadfast commitment to democratic solidarity.”

As the trial opens, the CHP plans to set up a tent encampment outside the courthouse in Silivri in a show of solidarity. The complex is attached to the prison where İmamoğlu has been held for nearly a year.

Silivri lies around 80 kilometres west of Istanbul.

### Özel as next candidate?

The trial has been described by Human Rights Watch as a “politically motivated” prosecution raising “serious fair trial concerns”.

“The trial of Mayor İmamoğlu follows more than a year of weaponising the criminal justice system against his party and other CHP elected officials while he sits in jail,” said Benjamin Ward of Human Rights Watch.

“It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that prosecutors are attempting to remove İmamoğlu from politics and discredit his party in ways that undermine democracy.”

One scenario widely discussed in political circles in Ankara is the possibility of an early election in the autumn of 2027, potentially allowing Erdoğan to seek another term.

Speaking to AFP, Bulut said there remained strong support within the party for İmamoğlu’s candidacy.

“However, should any legal or political obstacles arise, we will act with collective wisdom, embracing the broadest segments of society and determining the candidate who can secure the strongest support from the nation,” he said.

Although he did not name a possible replacement, Karaveli suggested Özel would be the “natural” choice.

“He has done a remarkable job of becoming a popular leader,” he said.

“I believe he has a chance.”