French mayoral races test political mood ahead of 2027 election

French voters go to the polls on Sunday to pick mayors and councillors in elections widely seen as a barometer of France’s political mood ahead of the high-stakes 2027 presidential race.

Marine Le Pen’s ascendant far-right party views next year’s contest as its strongest chance yet to take power, with centrist President Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from running again.

The elections in 35,000 villages, towns and cities will take place over two rounds held on consecutive Sundays.

Although municipal elections in France tend to revolve around local issues and follow a different logic from national contests, analysts say they will help gauge the political climate in the EU’s second-biggest economy and only nuclear power.

Francois Kraus, head of political studies at the IFOP polling institute, said that the municipal vote should not be seen as a “primary for the presidential election" but would nonetheless reveal key trends and dynamics.

“These municipal elections will no doubt provide a useful barometer of the political climate,” he said.

Historically, France’s major cities have been governed either by centre-left parties or the right-wing Republicans. By contrast, Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, the hard-left party of firebrand Jean? Luc Melenchon's and Macron’s centrists have so far struggled to establish a strong local footprint.

‘We are persistent.'

The National Rally (RN), which currently governs only one major city of more than 100,000 inhabitants, Perpignan, hopes to strengthen its local presence by capturing urban centres such as Toulon and Marseille, France’s second. largest city.

A strong performance would mark an important milestone in the RN’s longstanding effort to gain broader acceptance in the political mainstream. The party, which had long faced accusations of antisemitism, sees the elections as an opportunity to show it can govern at the local level.

In the lead-up to the vote, Le Pen acknowledged that capturing big cities such as Lyon, Bordeaux and Toulouse remained difficult.

“It’s fine,” she said. “We’re very persistent.”

In an editorial, the centre-left Le Monde newspaper said the polls would test the party’s capacity to anchor itself “at every level of society and across all regions". ”.

“Far from its traditional strongholds, Marine Le Pen’s party could make gains in mid-sized cities, in western France and even in some urban neighbourhoods.”

In one of the highest-profile contests, former prime minister Edouard Philippe is hoping to keep his seat as mayor of the northern port city of Le Havre, a role he has held since 2014.

A loss by 55-year-old Phillipe, seen by some as the strongest candidate to take on Le Pen or her 30-year-old lieutenant Jordan Bardella in the 2027 polls, will deplete his political capital.

All eyes will also be on the battle for Paris, where Rachida Dati, a combative former culture minister and one-time protégé of now-convicted ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, hopes to wrest control of the city from the left, which has run the French capital for the last quarter-century.

Dati goes neck and neck with left-wing candidate Emmanuel Gregoire, 48, and the loss of Paris would be a blow to the Socialist Party ahead of the presidential campaign.

Tactical voting –

Many mayoral candidates have distanced themselves from political parties, reflecting voters’ exasperation with the elites and the paralysis that has gripped the country ever since Macron called snap elections in 2024.

Following a record low turnout during the last local elections, held under the shadow of the coronavirus pandemic, analysts will closely scrutinise the 2026 races for possible signs of voter fatigue.

If no candidate wins an absolute majority in the first round, the vote will proceed to a second round on March 22.

The week between the two rounds is expected to see political parties negotiating deals with rivals and joining forces against strong opponents.

“The pattern of tactical voting will offer a preview for next year,” said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at risk analysis firm Eurasia Group.

Polling stations open at 0700 GMT Sunday across mainland France, with most closing 10 hours later.

Results from the first round are expected late Sunday, when nearly 93 per cent of municipalities are likely to know who their mayor will be.