Oil markets on edge as Trump issues 48-hour ultimatum to Iran

The global energy landscape faced its most severe test in decades this weekend as US President Donald Trump issued a definitive 48-hour deadline for Iran to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In a high-stakes escalation of the month-long conflict, the president warned that the United States is prepared to systematically “obliterate” Iran’s domestic power generation infrastructure, starting with its largest facilities, unless the vital maritime corridor is immediately and fully reopened to international shipping.

This ultimatum follows weeks of paralysis in the Persian Gulf, where nearly 20 per cent of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is typically transited. Since the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, Tehran has leveraged its geographical command of the narrow waterway to effectively halt commercial traffic, a retaliatory move that has sent shockwaves through global markets. The resulting supply vacuum has triggered aggressive spikes in fuel prices and stoked fears of a protracted inflationary spiral that threatens to destabilise major economies reliant on Gulf exports.

On the ground, the US military confirmed it successfully targeted an Iranian bunker on Saturday that was allegedly being used to store weaponry aimed at tankers in the Strait. The operation appears intended to signal Washington’s readiness to use force to degrade Iran’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities. Despite these tactical gains, the broader maritime environment remains paralysed, with many shipping firms opting to anchor vessels in the Gulf of Oman rather than risk the increasingly militarised transit through the chokepoint.

The international response has been characterised by deep unease, though more than 20 nations have recently pledged support for efforts to secure the sea lanes. While the White House maintains that it is seeking to restore “freedom of navigation", the threat to strike civilian power plants marks a significant shift in the rules of engagement. For global energy markets, the next 48 hours represent a critical junction: either a restoration of vital shipping flows or a catastrophic expansion of the war into the heart of the Middle East’s energy-producing core.