US President Donald Trump has tempered expectations for a rapid peace agreement in the Middle East, instructing American diplomats to proceed cautiously despite recent progress with Tehran.
A temporary ceasefire has held since 8 April, with international mediators working to secure a permanent resolution. Nevertheless, the economic standoff persists. The US maintains a blockade on Iranian ports, whilst Iran tightly controls maritime traffic through the Persian Gulf. The conflict initially erupted on 28 February when US and Israeli forces launched strikes against Iran, prompting retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the region.
Addressing the situation on social media on Sunday, Trump declared that time was on Washington’s side. He emphasised that the US naval blockade would remain firmly in place until a comprehensive agreement is officially signed and certified.
For the global energy sector, the most consequential element of the draft agreement revolves around Iranian crude. Reports indicate that if the proposed framework progresses, sanctions on Iranian oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals could be temporarily suspended. This would permit Tehran to trade its energy exports freely while diplomats finalise the remaining terms of the treaty.
Significant hurdles remain, however. Tehran has stated that crucial issues are still unresolved, particularly the fate of Iranian funds currently frozen in overseas financial institutions.
The nuclear question remains another major sticking point. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that a lasting agreement could not be drafted hastily on the back of a napkin, despite broad regional support for the current diplomatic push. Similarly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that any final settlement must definitively eliminate the nuclear threat posed by Iran.
Iranian officials have acknowledged the existence of a draft text but are seeking to postpone negotiations regarding their nuclear programme for 60 days following the signing of a peace deal. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has reiterated that his nation does not seek to acquire nuclear weapons, though it remains uncertain whether this commitment will be codified in the final document.
The diplomatic effort involves multiple regional stakeholders. Leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Turkey, and Pakistan held a joint telephone conference with Trump on Saturday to assess the situation. Pakistan, which facilitated the initial face-to-face negotiations in April, intends to host further peace summits in the near future.
The necessity for a resolution is increasingly urgent as hostilities persist in other arenas. The Israeli military continues to launch strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, despite a separate ceasefire established on 17 April. The Iran-backed group entered the conflict in March following US and Israeli strikes that resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader.
On Sunday, Rubio accused Hezbollah of attempting to destabilise Lebanon by inciting the public to overthrow the government. This followed calls from the Hezbollah leadership for mass protests against Israeli air operations and US sanctions targeting a prominent Lebanese financial institution.
