The United Nations has issued a fresh warning over the likely return of the El Niño climate phenomenon, urging governments and communities worldwide to prepare for potentially severe weather disruptions in the coming months.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), there is an 80 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August, with the likelihood increasing to more than 90 per cent by November. Forecast models suggest the event could reach moderate or even strong intensity.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon affects global weather systems, often altering rainfall patterns, increasing temperatures and contributing to extreme weather events across different regions.
WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo warned that the developing El Niño could intensify droughts, heavy rainfall and heatwaves on both land and in the oceans. She stressed the importance of early preparedness, particularly in sectors such as agriculture, water management, energy and public health.
The UN agency noted that ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific have already approached El Niño thresholds, while atmospheric indicators are also showing signs consistent with the phenomenon’s emergence.
UN Secretary General António Guterres described the situation as an urgent climate warning, saying El Niño is expected to amplify the effects of global warming. He called for stronger climate action, faster adoption of renewable energy and improved protection for vulnerable communities.
Although the WMO said there is no evidence that climate change directly increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, it noted that a warmer atmosphere and oceans can magnify their impacts by providing more energy and moisture for extreme weather.
Forecasts for June to August indicate above-average temperatures across most parts of the world. Regional climate centres have also projected below-normal rainfall in parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, reduced monsoon rainfall in South Asia, and hotter, drier conditions in Central America.
The WMO said advanced forecasting and early-warning systems will play a crucial role in helping countries reduce risks and prepare for the potential economic, environmental and humanitarian impacts of the developing El Niño event.
