The United Nations’ climate agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), has issued an urgent warning that the El Niño climate pattern is officially active and expected to develop into a strong event between July and September. El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years, warming the surface of the Pacific Ocean and triggering a chain reaction that changes wind, air pressure, and rainfall patterns across the globe. Because current forecasts suggest this event will reach the third-highest of four intensity levels, the WMO is urging countries to prepare for significant disruptions to their local weather.
While an El Niño event typically lasts between nine and 12 months, its influence often extends much further. Climate scientist Alvaro Silva confirmed that the world should expect to feel the impacts of this event throughout the rest of this year and potentially into 2027. The most pressing concerns include a high likelihood of above-average temperatures across almost all populated areas of the world. Additionally, scientists expect regions to see significant changes in rainfall. For instance, the southwestern United States is likely to see much more rain than usual, while the Indian subcontinent and large parts of Australia may face drier conditions, increasing the risk of drought.
This climate pattern affects more than just rain and heat. The warming of the Pacific Ocean can provide more fuel for hurricanes in the Pacific region, although it may actually help suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the WMO noted that while there is no evidence that climate change makes El Niño happen more often, the warming of our oceans and atmosphere can make its effects much more severe. By providing extra energy and moisture, these warmer conditions can turn heatwaves and heavy rainfall into more dangerous and destructive events.
Governments are already beginning to take precautions to protect their citizens. Peru recently declared a 60-day state of emergency across 800 of its municipalities due to the “imminent danger” of heavy rains linked to this event, warning well over 9 million people about the high risk of flooding and landslides. WMO Chief Celeste Saulo emphasised that the agency is working to provide early warnings to help governments and communities prepare for the event. These alerts are vital for protecting vulnerable sectors like agriculture and public health, helping to save lives and reduce the economic impact when extreme weather strikes. As the event strengthens over the coming months, the WMO plans to monitor the situation closely and provide further updates if the forecast suggests it is becoming more intense.
