Recent decisions on climate policy mean New Zealand is on track to miss its key emissions targets, an independent advisory body has warned.
A report by the Climate Change Commission indicates that ministers chose not to adopt expert recommendations provided in 2025.
The advisory body had urged the government to set stricter targets for reducing biogenic methane and to achieve net negative levels for other greenhouse gases.
However, ministers amended the Climate Change Response Act instead, lowering the required cuts for methane by 2050 while keeping existing net-zero goals unchanged.
The report highlights that there is little time left to adjust national policy and meet statutory commitments.
Specific choices were highlighted as key risks to progress, including keeping agricultural emissions out of carbon pricing schemes and easing clean vehicle standards.
Plans to reduce corporate environmental reporting requirements and build a new liquefied natural gas import facility are also expected to increase total output.
Chief executive of the Climate Change Commission Jo Hendy described the findings as a clear warning sign for national leaders.
She noted that while emissions had been dropping, progress stalled in 2024, and current measures are not delivering fast enough.
She added that government choices over the coming two years will be decisive in getting the country back on track.
While some positive steps were taken over the past year, the commission concluded that these will likely be eclipsed by actions that push emissions higher.
The report also raised concerns over structural changes, including the decision to close the dedicated Ministry for the Environment and fold its functions into a broader infrastructure department.
The government faces growing pressure over its environmental strategy, having been taken to court earlier this year by campaign groups alleging a failure to meet legal obligations.
A legal ruling on that challenge is expected in the coming months.
